West Virginia is Clinton country. It is such a foregone conclusion that Hillary Clinton will carry the state on May 13th, that “Election Inspection”, online, put it this way: “Clinton will win West Virginia by more than 25%. There’s no point in nailing it down further, because it’s nearly impossible to be exact when there’s a blowout…”
The polls dating from 4/20 through 5/4 show this:
ARG – 5/2-5/4 Obama 45 Clinton 53
SUSA-5/2-5/4 Obama 42 Clinton 54
Suffolk U-5/3-5/4 Obama 43 Clinton 49
Zogby – 5/3-5/4 Obama 44 Clinton 42
Zogby – 5/2-5/3 Obama 43 Clinton 41
Zogby – 5/1-5/2 Obama 43 Clinton 42
ARG – 4/30 – 5/1 Obama 44 Clinton 53
Insider Advantage
4/30-5/1 Obama 42 Clinton 42
Zogby 4/30 – 5/1 Obama 40 Clinton 47
Down C Ctr.
4/29-4/30 Obama 45 Clinton 52
TeleSySA Research
4/25-4/29 Obama 38 Clinton 48
Rasmussen 4/29 Obama 41 Clinton 46
SUSA – 4/25-4/27 Obama 43 Clinton 52
Howey/Gauge-
4/23 – 4/24 Obama 47 Clinton 45
ARG 4/23-4/34 Obama 45 Clinton 50
Reserved TOVO
4/21 – 4/24 Obama 48 Clinton 47
Selzer & Co/Indiana-
Apolis STAR/WTHR
4/20-4/23 Obama 41 Clinton 38
Chadwick Martin, writing online on “At the Foot of the Mountaineers” on 5/9/08 reported, “less than 25% of likely Democratic primary voters are planning to vote for Obama.” Martin gave a 43 point lead to Clinton and said that less than 20% of whites would vote for Barack Obama, and even the youth demographic would go to Clinton by 35 points.
This year’s vote in West Virginia is noteworthy because it is the first time that the state is having an “open” primary, where voters need only declare their preference to vote, according to Jennifer O’Shea. Back on Super Tuesday, 18 of 30 Republican delegates were voted to Mike Huckabee, but all of the Democratic delegates will be awarded on May 13th, according to “U.S. News & World Report” online on 5/10/08.
Obama has not been campaigning actively in West Virginia, ceding the state to Hillary Clinton. Since 1968, the state has voted Democratic in 6 of 9 contests. It was a pivotal state for John Fitzgerald Kennedy in overcoming Hubert Humphrey’s challenge in 1960, and he won it 60.8 to Humphrey’s 39.2.
RealClearPolitics online also gives West Virginia to Hillary Clinton by large margins, reporting that, on 5/07-5/08, the ARG poll of 600 likely voters gave Clinton a +43 point lead. Other polls on RealClearPolitics show the lead as +29 (Rasmussen), +40 (TSG Consulting), +15 (ARG on 3/29 to 4/02 and +28 for Rasmussen back on 3/13, all to Clinton.
“The Fire Society,” online, reports that, in a survey taken on May 4th of 840 likely voters, Hillary Clinton had a +43 point lead. She was viewed favorably by 72% of the West Virginia voters, versus 48% who viewed Obama favorably. In fact, Obama’s numbers had actually dropped by 5.7 points. The Jeremiah Wright pastor flap had been followed by 78% of polled voters and 57% said that they thought that Obama would “share Pastor Wright’s views.” (These were ALL voters; not just Democratic voters.)
In a general election, West Virginia voters say they would vote for Hillary over John McCain (72%), but if the nominee is Obama vs. McCain, only 56% of West Virginia voters respond affirmatively that they would vote for Barack Obama over John McCain.
Queen Appia
There are certainly a couple more details to take into consideration, but thank you for giving this information.
Shamontiel L. Vaughn
If Obama is not on that Democratic ballot, I’m voting Independent. I don’t respect Hillary’s tactics of winning. She’s ranting about Michigan even though Obama was not on the ballot at all. An apology for supporting the war is not good enough to me. I also don’t like how she lied about being shot at. You don’t misspeak being shot. I know. I’ve actually run from people shooting, and there’s no way I didn’t know where I was, who was shooting, and what was going on around me. To me, McCain = Clinton.
Stacey
Go Obama!!!!!