It’s only a few hours from the Oscars. The ballots are out (you know who you are) and the Prognosticator trophy is at stake.
Since this is Oscar Sunday, I am going to (stream-of-consciousness) run through the nominees, in the hopes that some of you are doing the same thing right about now. The Red Carpet is about to start, and who is going to win? (The tension mounts.)
Our ballots are distributed to the Usual Suspects and the traveling trophy of Most Accurate Prognosticator sits proudly on the mantel—errr, glass table—near our TV set. In other years, I’d be giving out freebie movie tickets to students at my Sylvan Learning Center (only the winners, of course) but, this year, it’s just old Oscar (the trophy) and bragging rights. Pay no attention to my last post about the nominated films I, personally, liked the most because I have not “liked” the Best Picture winner in the past few years. So, you’re warned.
I’m going beyond the 5 main categories to discuss those that almost nobody sees, live-action shorts. I actually reviewed many of the “live action” shorts, and a Mindy Kahling produced film about India called “Anuja,” which I liked. However, I liked a different one better from China about fishing for corpses in the river, so… But how many of you have seen “A Lien,” “I’m Not A Robot,” “The Last Ranger,” or “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent?” Yeah. That’s what I thought.
Original Screenplay nominees are “Anora,”, “The Brutalist,” “A Real Pain,” “September 5,” “The Substance.” I have actually seen all of these. “A Real Pain” is the front-runner, supposedly, but I like nearly any other script better. I’m thinking that, if a sweep starts with either “Anora” or “The Brutalist,” it might garner a vote in this category, too. (Lots of talk about how “Anora,” the film about a U.S. strip tease dancer marrying the son of a Russian oligarch and the fall-out that represents is gaining on the previous front-runners.) We liked Mikey Madison’s performance in “Anora” but—after her Russian husband takes a powder—the film becomes a repetitive search film where they attempt to locate him. Mikey Madison was great in her part, and the somewhat open-ended interpretation we are left with at the end was a plus. I could see new-comers to the voting ranks giving Madison the BEST ACTRESS trophy, if they don’t decide to honor Demi Moore for her long career.
BEST DIRECTORS
Nominated directors for the 2025 Oscars
Jacques Audliard (“Emilia Perez”); Sean Baker (“Anora”); Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”); Coralie Fargeat (“The Substance”); James Mangold “A Complete Unknown”. The two in the lead are Sean Baker and Brady Corbet. I also would like to heartily endorse James Mangold, primarily because I loved “Ford vs. Ferrari.” I am sticking with “The Brutalist” because it was such an achievement on just a $10 million budget.
DEMI MOORE/ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY AWARDS
Why would Demi Moore NOT win? (1) “The Substance” was a horror movie and, historically, the Academy has not wanted to honor them with the top prize. (2) The ending may have turned some viewers off (3) The voter has to be willing to honor age and experience over the youthful new-on-the-scene Mikey Madison. It’s a close call with so many members of the Academy now voting being newcomers. Both women have been doing well at the other awards ceremonies that lead up to the Oscars. I can’t see the trans-gender lead (Karla Sofia Gascon) pulling this one out of the fire and Fernanda Torres’ “I’m Still Here” is probably the film least viewed of the 10 nominees (It’s the only one I missed).
So, take your pick between the old-timer and the new-comer or give your vote to Cynthia Erivo for “Wicked.” For me, I’ll go with the old-timer for the Best Actress award, and I’ll go with “The Brutalist” over “A Real Pain” for original screenplay. Jesse Eisenberg will continue writing scripts and I hope they continue to receive accolades. For me, the best script this year was for “Heretic” from (Scott) Beck and (Bryan) Woods, which didn’t make the cut at all.
James Mangold (“A Complete Unknown.”).
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees are “Conclave,” “A Complete Unknown,” “Emilia Perez,” “Nickel Boys,” “Sing Sing.” Given its BAFTA showings, “Conclave” must move up on the list of potential winners. For me, it’s “A Complete Unknown,” but the experts are leaning towards “Conclave.”
ANIMATED FEATURE
Nominees are “Flow,” “Inside Out 2,” “Memoir of a Snail,” “Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl,” “The Wild Robot”
There was a big push to have all the critics see “Memoir of a Snail.” I did. It was weird, but well-done, so I’ll go with that. I think that “Flow” is the favorite.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
“The Brutalist,” “Conclave,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Nosferatu,” “Wicked.”
For me, “The Brutalist” really delivered on the architect immigrant in America theme. “Wicked” and “Dune” are possible winners, but I was so impressed by the architecture in “The Brutalist” that I’ll stick with my favorite picture of those nominated this year.
COSTUME DESIGN
“Wicked”
“Wicked” co-stars.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
“The Brutalist.” A close second, for me, would be “Dune: Part Two,” but the almost picture-perfect moon over the water and the shots taking us down the railroad tracks and the unique look at the Statue of Liberty at the beginning all point me to “The Brutalist.”
EDITING
“Conclave,” in deference to the BAFTA nods.
MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
“Wicked,” although “The Substance” has a shot.
SOUND
The 2 musically inclined films are “A Complete Unknown” and “Wicked.” Take your pick. Mine is “Wicked.”
VISUAL EFFECTS
“Dune: Part Two”with “Wicked as a close second.
ORIGINAL SCORE
“The Brutalist”
Oscar predicting trophy
ORIGINAL SONG
Have you heard all 5 of the nominated songs? Well, I have. It took some sleuthing, but, after listening to all of them, I would say the battle is between honoring Elton John for “Never Too Late,” which has a typical Elton John sound and is possibly the finale entry from this talented songsmith. But I’ll vote for Dianne Warren’s 16th nomination for “The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight.” When you hear the lyrics, you’ll see why. It’s become a hymn for the fire-ravaged Los Angeles community, and isn’t it about time that Diane Warren got the little gold guy?
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
I’m going with “Porcelain War,” even though it echoes last year’s Ukraine-themed winner. I realize that DJT doesn’t want us supporting Ukraine any more, since he’s all in for Russia, but I’m voting for it based on having seen it.
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
“Emilia Perez” from France—which was supposed to win it all until recent tweets resurfaced.
ANIMATED SHORT
“Yuck”
Oscar Prognosticator Trophy
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
“The Only Girl in the Orchestra”
LIVE-ACTION SHORT
Since I saw “Anuja,” I’m voting for it, even though I’ve not read that it is favored. (“A Lien” got that honor from one predictor.)
There’s a tie-breaker on our competition. You have to make a pick in all categories and tell which film will win the most Oscars, and how many. For me, based on this stream-of-consciousness
