Mitt Romney in Davenport, IA.
Super Tuesday, 2012, is over. In a few ways, it was like Super Tuesday, 2008. There were more ways, however, in which it bore little resemblance to four years ago. For one thing, the enthusiasm in 2008 was at fever pitch. The Republican race is more like warmed-over left-overs. There are fewer contests this time, (none on the Democratic side), and the “winner-take-all” formula that helped McCain win the 1,144 votes needed for the Republican nomination has been changed in many states.
Romney Can’t Seal the Deal
The failure of Mitt Romney to decisively put away the states on the ballot on March 6, 2012, means that, much like Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards in 2008, this campaign will slog on to a far-off finish line. There aren’t too many big electoral vote states having contests until April.
Kansas is next on March 10. On March 13, Alabama, Mississippi and Hawaii vote. Super Tuesday was Mitt Romney’s chance to pull away from the pack, especially upstart former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum. He failed to do so. Now, Romney’s gearing up for a big campaign in Illinois on March 20.
Mitt carried Ohio, a must-win state, by only about 12,000 votes. This slim victory margin caused more concern than celebration. No Republican has ever won the nomination without taking Ohio. Romney also won Massachusetts, Vermont, Idaho and Virginia. (In Virginia, however, only Romney and Ron Paul were on the ballot.)
Newt Gingrich in Davenport, IA.
Meanwhile, Newt Gingrich carried his home state of Georgia, vowing (like Edwards before him) to fight on (although Edwards quit after Nevada) and Santorum racked up wins in North Dakota, Tennessee and Oklahoma. [Alaska—which seemed to be trending towards Romney—-was still out as of this writing.] Totals: 386 for Romney; 156 for Santorum; 85 for Gingrich; and 40 for Paul.
Romney/Santorum vs. Clinton/Obama in 2008
A CNN commentator said, “It was a slog. It took forever. His (Romney’s) negatives are shooting up because of all the negative campaign ads.” All agreed that Romney’s fundamental problem is that he cannot coalesce the Republican base. Said Donna Brazile on CNN, “I feel that is very weak.”
Compare Romney’s failure to win the hearts and minds of voters with the miracle in the cornfields of the Iowa caucuses that set Barack Obama on the path to the White House. With his first win in Iowa in 2008, there was talk of Obama’s “momentum in the Heartland.” This was especially sweet for Obama because, as described in the book Game Change, by John Heilemann and Mark Halperin, Hillary Clinton decided to “double down” on Iowa.
She poured millions of additional dollars into the campaign. It was a political gamble with a huge upside, if she won. The downside was that Hillary burned through a lot of her campaign cash. If Hillary didn’t win in Iowa, a huge deficit faced her campaign in New Hampshire and beyond. Funding can hurt the lesser candidates (Paul, Gingrich), but Romney’s inability to close the deal may also hurt him. Santorum’s strong showings have swelled his war chest to $9 million.
Women Voters
Rick Santorum in Des Moines on Iowa caucus night.
One way in which 2008 and 2012 mirrored one another is that women voters went to the victor. Barack Obama took women voters away from Hillary Clinton in Iowa, but she came back in New Hampshire with her teary moment, won them back, and scored a victory there. Exit polls showed that this time women went for Romney over Santorum, 42% to 38% in Ohio.
Conclusion
Any way you analyze the results, Texas Governor Rick Perry was correct. He said, “This wasn’t a super night for anyone.” From now on, money woes could well plague those who did the least well.